The global cut-flower industry, built on stable climates in a handful of specialized regions, is confronting an unprecedented challenge: the very conditions that made those regions powerhouses are being eroded by a warming planet. From East Africa’s highlands to the Netherlands’ greenhouses, growers face mounting pressures that threaten supply chains from Nairobi to New York.
East Africa: Water at the Core
Kenya, the world’s fourth-largest cut-flower exporter, supplies roughly one-third of all roses sold in the European Union, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs. Most production clusters around Lake Naivasha, whose high altitude and abundant water once guaranteed year-round growing. Now, recurring droughts and intensifying competition for water among flower farms, fishing communities, and food growers have made water scarcity the industry’s dominant long-term risk. Lake levels are dropping, biodiversity is declining, and pesticide runoff adds environmental strain.
Ethiopia, a newer producer supplying about 2% of the global market, employs more than 100,000 workers—mostly women—but faces the same water volatility. Both countries are investing in efficient irrigation and water recycling to protect a key export sector.
South America: Andes Under Stress
Colombia, the world’s largest cut-flower producer, exports hundreds of millions of stems annually, largely to the United States. Farms cluster near Bogotá’s airport to minimize transit time—flowers lose roughly 15% of their value for each extra day in transit. Any weather disruption to harvesting or shipping can ripple through the supply chain.
Ecuador has built its reputation on large, high-altitude roses grown in industrial greenhouses, a system heavily dependent on water and chemicals. Shifting rainfall patterns are compounding existing labor and environmental concerns, including pesticide use and competition with indigenous communities for water. Because Colombia and Ecuador dominate North American supply, sustained disruption in the Andes directly affects U.S. prices and availability, especially around Valentine’s Day and Mother’s Day, when supply chains have almost no slack.
The Netherlands: Energy, Not Water
As the world’s largest flower exporter and re-export hub for African blooms, the Netherlands faces a different climate challenge: energy. Its cold, cloudy climate requires heated, lit greenhouses powered largely by fossil fuels. Studies show Dutch greenhouse roses can generate several times the emissions of Kenyan outdoor-grown roses, even after accounting for air freight. Climate policy and rising energy costs are now pushing Dutch growers toward geothermal heating, improved glazing, and renewable power—changes driven as much by economics as by weather disruption.
United Kingdom: Import Reliance and Resilience
Britain imports roughly 90% of its £2.2 billion cut-flower market, leaving it exposed to disruptions abroad. A recent Nuffield Farming report found that UK growers have focused narrowly on cutting their own carbon emissions while neglecting resilience against domestic extreme heat, flooding, and drought. Growing interest in home-grown blooms, promoted by networks as a lower-carbon alternative, remains a small fraction of total sales.
United States and Southern Europe: Droughts and Competition
U.S. flower farms, mainly in California, face worsening drought and water restrictions. Since the U.S. imports most cut flowers from Colombia and Ecuador, consumers are indirectly vulnerable to Andean climate pressures. A modest resurgence in domestic, smaller-scale flower farming is partly framed as a way to reduce reliance on that vulnerable import chain.
Southern Europe, especially Spain and Portugal, sees water-intensive flower production competing directly with traditional rain-fed agriculture as droughts become more frequent.
Common Thread
Across all regions, the industry is converging on shared pressures: water scarcity, unpredictable growing seasons, rising pest and disease threats, and the high cost of protecting a perishable, low-margin product against volatile weather. What differs is which pressure dominates—water in East Africa and the Andes, energy in the Netherlands, drought in California and the Mediterranean—but the underlying story is the same. An industry built on stable, predictable climates must now adapt to a world where stability can no longer be taken for granted. Adapting will require new investment, innovation, and possibly a rethinking of global supply chains.